Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.635104 0.733648 0.839253 0.960482 1.095424 1.240641 1.408347
2025-02-16 0.446756 0.570428 0.713414 0.889510 1.099019 1.338748 1.632143
2025-02-23 0.308756 0.437766 0.598987 0.811848 1.081766 1.408731 1.830441
2025-03-02 0.208130 0.330496 0.496521 0.731854 1.049660 1.456279 2.007102
2025-03-09 0.150711 0.268115 0.440764 0.702471 1.076873 1.579837 2.290931
2025-03-16 0.107375 0.215573 0.388549 0.668993 1.093346 1.690391 2.568688
2025-03-23 0.083553 0.187998 0.368298 0.678619 1.171502 1.892587 2.988857
2025-03-30 0.058465 0.150464 0.323894 0.642844 1.176636 1.990459 3.270728
2025-04-06 0.042497 0.125087 0.294660 0.626500 1.209002 2.130403 3.624064
2025-04-13 0.030167 0.102650 0.265381 0.604478 1.228372 2.250990 3.956739
2025-04-20 0.023190 0.090149 0.252909 0.610927 1.296198 2.452921 4.427774
2025-04-27 0.017198 0.077366 0.236493 0.606586 1.343756 2.624872 4.862508
2025-05-04 0.012494 0.066116 0.221366 0.603983 1.397591 2.817565 5.354208
2025-05-11 0.009073 0.056916 0.208651 0.604352 1.457419 3.026113 5.887605
2025-05-18 0.005994 0.046316 0.188596 0.584175 1.474215 3.160389 6.306147
2025-05-25 0.003597 0.035876 0.164748 0.549553 1.456513 3.230280 6.618908
2025-06-01 0.002434 0.030433 0.154386 0.546438 1.504910 3.426229 7.164113
2025-06-08 0.001533 0.025028 0.141687 0.534228 1.531546 3.582516 7.647840
2025-06-15 0.001143 0.022935 0.140570 0.554115 1.633257 3.891771 8.425700
2025-06-22 0.000643 0.018222 0.126334 0.532486 1.635280 4.003500 8.846374
2025-06-29 0.000381 0.015161 0.117496 0.525015 1.669944 4.182909 9.402205
2025-07-06 0.000203 0.012248 0.107391 0.510807 1.685782 4.324012 9.892072
2025-07-13 0.000128 0.010873 0.104534 0.520207 1.762429 4.596807 10.646474